Driverless cars may cut U.S. sales by 40%, Barclays says

THE MOTOR CITY (Bloomberg) -- U.S. vehicle sales may fall about 40% in the next 25 years because of common driverless cars, driving mass market manufacturers such as Gm and Ford Motor Co. to slash out-put, a Barclays Plc analyst stated.
Vehicle possession prices might drop by nearly half as households move to having only one automobile, based on a a study published today from the analyst, Brian Johnson. Driverless cars will go twice as many miles as present vehicles since they are going to carry each household member throughout the day, he wrote.
Big-quantity automakers "would must shrink radically to live," Johnson wrote. "General Motors and Ford would need certainly to reduce North American creation by up to 6-8% and 5 8%, respectively."
Self-driving automobiles are becoming a regular subject for automobile executives as the technologies for the automobiles emerges. The marketplace for sovereign technology will increase to $42 billion by 2025 and self-driving vehicles might take into account 1 / 4 of international vehicle sales by 2035, in accordance with Boston Consulting Group. By 2017, partly autonomous vehicles can be accessible in "multitudes," the company said in a report in April.
Johnson's report, entitled "Tumultuous Freedom," states the shift to vehicles that drive themselves will up-end the automotive industry.
General Motors and Ford did not promptly respond to requests to discuss Johnson's report.
When most autos are driverless, yearly U.S. vehicle sales will drop about 40% to 9.5 million, while the amount of automobiles on American streets decrease by 60% to less than 100-million, he believed.
'Historic precedent'
"While severe, a historic precedent exists," Johnson wrote. "Horses once stuffed the several functions that automobiles fill now, but as the car came along, the populace of horses fell dramatically."
Car companies work to renovate their business plans to get a world where freedom has been redefined as the majority of the worldwide population bunches into big megacities during another two decades. Driverless vehicles that go in harmony may become vital to keep individuals and products flowing securely and economically.
Johnson foresees four car types -- conventional automobiles and trucks pushed by people for function or in rural locations; "family autonomous automobiles," possessed by people and shared by way of one family; "shared sovereign vehicles" that would be "robot cabs" summoned by smart phone; and "pooled shared sovereign vehicles" that hold multiple passengers, such as, for instance, a bus or a van.
Every common vehicle traveling would displace nine conventional vehicles, and every pooled common vehicle would consider the position of as many as 18, in accordance with Johnson's report.
Freedom economies
Consumers' price of freedom would fall drastically, he wrote.
"By eliminating the driver in the equation (the biggest price in a cab ride), the typical cost per-mile to the customer could be 44 cents to get an exclusive ride in a regular sedan and 8 cents to get a common ride in a twoseater," Johnson wrote, noting that would be "well below" the $3 to $3.50 a mile customers now spend to trip in an UberX automobile or the $1 to $1.50 a mile for an UberPool automobile.
The change to driverless automobiles would help transportation network businesses like Uber Systems Inc., sovereign technology suppliers such as Mobileye NV and manufacturers of low cost automobiles, according to the report.
"While the Detroit Three will nevertheless have pick-ups and vans (their most lucrative sections), they are going to be challenged in" the marketplaces for family sovereign vehicles and common vehicles, Johnson wrote. "We see this as another lid on the prospects for" conventional, mass market auto makers.

Contact Automotive News

Tags:
Technology
Sovereign Vehicle
Self-Driving Vehicles
Analysts' Opinions

Vehicle Technology

Marketing

Read Source

18.05.2015
ID:2009

More news from this source:

1. Tell us about retail high achievers under 40
2. Suits target price-fixing parts makers
3. Soaring on the wings of the snowbirds
4. Volvo recalls 59,000 cars over software fault
5. Hyundai Ioniq targets Prius, but not in sales